000 AXNT20 KNHC 270551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1251 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A 27/0256 UTC ASCAT pass shows a patch of near gale to gale force winds in the vicinity of 25N-26N between 93W-95W. Gales are developing now in the W and SW Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions are expected to continue in the SW Gulf early this morning and then shift ENE across the central and SE portions through tonight in association with a developing low pressure area along a front. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean this evening. N gales are expected along the front across the Yucatan Channel tonight, with seas up to 12 ft. These conditions will subside by early Mon morning. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Weak low pressure developing along a stalled front over the Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the NW Bahamas and NW waters tonight then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas Mon. Gales are expected to develop on either side of the front from late tonight, continuing into Mon night. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the warnings above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 05N14W to 02N18. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N21W to 00N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 00N-05N between 04W-17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is located over western Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea, just S of the Yucatan Channel. Another frontal boundary is located over Texas about 90 nm inland from the Gulf Coast with a 1018 mb low near the Austin/San Antonio area. Aloft, the SPC 27/0000 UTC upper-air analysis reveals a 150+ kt jet streak at 250 mb over the north-central Gulf of Mexico stretching over portions of the SE United States. Portions of the central and northeast Gulf are under the right entrance region of the jet streak. Although there are no major surface features analyzed over the Gulf at this time, the jet stream, combined with enhanced upward motion from an approaching 500 mb trough over the south- central United States is leading to scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms that cover much of the Gulf of Mexico from 24N-29N. Over the western Gulf, scattered thunderstorms are noted from 21N-25N, west of 94W. Gale force winds are also developing now over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. See section above for more details. The stalled frontal boundary across the Yucatan Channel and along the NW coast of Cuba will lift northward across the Straits of Florida and SE Gulf of Mexico early this morning. Reinforcing high pressure will force the front SE later today, with low pressure and gales expected to develop along the frontal boundary in the SW Gulf, then move ENE toward Florida and the western Atlantic Mon. High pressure will rebuild across the region early in the work week. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales possible W of the front Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is located from western Cuba near 23N82W to 21.5N85W to 19N87W. Scattered showers are seen over western Cuba with isolated showers over the NW Caribbean. Over the remainder of the Caribbean, relatively quiet weather prevails, with only typical isolated trade wind showers over the eastern Caribbean. The stationary front near the Yucatan Channel will drift N into the SE Gulf of Mexico early this morning, then sink southward across the NW Caribbean tonight through Mon. North gales are briefly expected along the front across the Yucatan Channel tonight. The front will move SE and stall from central Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua Mon night and gradually dissipate Tue. NW swell prevailing over the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands will subside through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stalled front extends from 31N67W to the Straits of Florida with a pre-frontal trough extending from 28N70W to 22N75W. Scattered moderate convection associated with these features covers the area between Andros Island Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are elsewhere over the Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are N of 27N W of 65W. A 1010 mb low is over the central Atlc near 27N35W with an associated cold front extending along 30N30W to 25N26W to 20N30W. Scattered showers and tstms associated with this low pressure system are from 22N-32N between 25W-40W. A low and associated front will bring gales to the NW Bahamas and NW waters late tonight into Mon. See section above for details. The front will start to shift SE in the wake of the low pressure, reaching from 31N72W to E central Cuba by Mon evening, before stalling and dissipating Tue. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen