000 AXNT20 KNHC 261148 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 648 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... On Sun 27/0600 UTC, a stationary front is forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico from 25N81W to a 1011 mb low near 22N93W. Gale- force winds are forecast from 22N-25N and W of 91W with seas to 12 ft. These conditions will continue through at least the next 12 hours. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... On Sun night, a cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean, extending from 27N81W to 20N87.5W. Gale-force winds are expected N of the front, with seas up to 9 ft. These conditions will subside within the next 6 hours. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near 12N16W and extends to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of South America near 04S38W. No significant convection is observed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure center located near 33N85W. The pressure gradient between a stationary front over W Cuba to Belize and the ridge across the basin support moderate to fresh northerly winds. No significant convection is observed at this time. A stationary front, currently east of the area, will transition and gradually lift northward into the southeast Gulf of Mexico this weekend. By Sun, a low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary in the SW Gulf, then move ENE toward Florida and the western Atlantic Mon. Gale conditions are forecast in the northwest Gulf by then. Refer to the section above for details. High pressure will rebuild across the region behind the exiting low early next week. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from W Cuba near 22N80W to the Yucatan Channel near 21N85W to Belize near 16N89W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the front. Shallow moisture prevails across the remainder of the basin supporting scattered showers currently moving west mainly east of 70W. Expect the stationary front over the Yucatan Channel to dissipate today. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel by Sun night, then stall and dissipate over the northwest Caribbean early next week. Gale-force winds are expected behind the front across the northwest Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south central Caribbean through Sun, then diminish next week as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. NW swell prevailing over the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands will subside through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 32N68W to 23N74W to 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the front mainly N of 27N between 65W-71W. A 1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 36N48W, with its ridge extending between 45W-70W. To the east, a deep layered 1006 mb low is centered near 27N34W. A cold front is E of this low from 31N31W to 21N30W to 15N40W, then becomes weak from that point to 16N60W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front mainly north of 23N. The W Atlantic front will stall and weaken from Bermuda to western Cuba today. A second front will stall from 31N72W to West Palm Beach Florida through early Sun. Weak low pressure along the stalled front over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast across the Bahamas Sun then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas Sun night. The front will shift southeast Mon in the wake of the low pressure, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, before stalling and dissipating farther east Tue. The next cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA