000 AXNT20 KNHC 260527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1227 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... On Sun 27/1800 UTC, a stationary front is forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico from 25N81W to a 1011 mb low near 22N93W. Gale-force winds are forecast from 22N-25N and W of 91W with seas to 12 ft. These conditions will continue through at least the next 12 hours. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near 09N13W and extends to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of South America near 00N47W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong ridge anchored by several high pressure centers near the middle Mississippi valley extends south and covers the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between a stationary front over W Cuba to Belize and the ridge across the basin support moderate to fresh north-northeasterly winds. A cold front, currently east of the area, will transition and gradually lift northward into the southeast Gulf of Mexico this weekend. By Sun, a low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary in the SW Gulf, then move ENE toward Florida and the western Atlantic Mon. Gale conditions are forecast in the southwest Gulf by then. Refer to the section above for details. High pressure will rebuild across the region behind the exiting low early next week. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from W Cuba near 22N80W to the Yucatan Channel near 21N85W to Belize near 16N89W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the front. Shallow moisture prevails across the remainder of the basin supporting scattered showers currently moving west mainly east of 70W. Expect the stationary front over the Yucatan Channel to dissipate through early Sat. A weak cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then stall and dissipate over the northwest Caribbean early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south central Caribbean through Sun, then diminish next week as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. NW swell prevailing over the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands will subside through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N67W to 25N73W to 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the front mainly N of 27N between 65W-71W. A 1031 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N49W, with its ridge extending between 45W-70W. To the east, a deep layered 1008 mb low is centered near 28N34W. A cold front is E of this low from 31N33W to 25N30W to 17N41W to 17N59W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front mainly north of 20N. The W Atlantic cold front will stall and weaken from Bermuda to western Cuba Sat. A second front will move off northeast Florida tonight then stall from 31N72W to West Palm Beach Florida through early Sun. Weak low pressure along the stalled front over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast across the Bahamas Sun then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas Sun night. The front will shift southeast Mon in the wake of the low pressure, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, before stalling and dissipating farther east Tue. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA