000 AXNT20 KNHC 252343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 643 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... On Sun 27/1800 UTC a stationary front is forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico from 25N81W to a 1011 mb low near 21N90W. Gale force winds are forecast S of 21N and W of 94W with seas to 10 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near 07N12W and extends to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N30W to 03N43W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm N of the ITCZ, W of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong ridge anchored by several high pressure centers near the middle Mississippi valley extends south and covers the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between a stationary front over W Cuba to Belize and the ridge across the basin support moderate to fresh north-northeasterly winds. The stationary front will gradually lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. On Sunday, low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary in the SW Gulf, then move ENE toward Florida and the western Atlantic Mon. Gale conditions are forecast in the southwest Gulf on Sun. High pressure will rebuild across the region behind the exiting low early next week. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 25/2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from W Cuba near 23N80W to the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W to Belize near 17N88W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. The remainder of the Caribbean has patches of shallow moisture across the NE Caribbean supporting isolated showers including the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Expect the stationary front over the Yucatan Channel to dissipate through early Sat. A weak cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then stall and dissipate over the northwest Caribbean early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south central Caribbean through Sun, then diminish next week as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. NW swell prevailing over the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands will subside through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to the central Bahamas near 24N76W to W Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 27N between 67W-71W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the remainder of the front. A 1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 25N50W. A deep layered 1008 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 28N34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the low. A cold front is E of this low from 31N33W to 25N30W to 20N34W. The front continues SW to 18N40W to 16N50W to 17N59W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of the front, N of 23N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. Over the W Atlantic, the W Atlantic cold front will stall and weaken from Bermuda to western Cuba Sat. A second front will move off northeast Florida tonight then stall from 31N72W to West Palm Beach Florida through early Sun. Weak low pressure along the stalled front over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast across the Bahamas Sun then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas Sun night. The front will shift southeast Mon in the wake of the low pressure, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, before stalling and dissipating farther east Tue. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa