000 AXNT20 KNHC 251741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1241 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near 05N10W and extends to 05N15W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 0N30W to 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 0N to 06N E of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong ridge anchored by several high pressure centers near the middle Mississippi valley extends south and covers the Gulf of Mexico, except for the Straits of Florida where a stationary front extends from 24N80W across the Yucatan channel to Guatemala coastal waters. The pressure gradient between the front E of the area and the ridge across the basin support moderate to fresh north-northeasterly winds. The stationary front will gradually lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. On Sunday, a low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary in the SW Gulf, then move ENE toward Florida and the western Atlantic Mon. Gale conditions are possible in the southwest Gulf on Sun. High pressure will rebuild across the region behind the exiting low early next week. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery show very dry air across the Caribbean generally supporting fair weather conditions. However, patches of shallow moisture, remnants of a cold front over the central Atlc, move across the NE Caribbean supporting isolated showers including the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These showers will be affecting portions of the Dominican Republic this afternoon. Isolated showers are also occurring across the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean associated with the tail of a dissipating stationary front along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. These showers extends inland western Cuba. The stationary front will dissipate through early Sat. A weak cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then stall and dissipate over the northwest Caribbean early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south central Caribbean through Sun, then diminish next week as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. NW swell prevailing over the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands will subside through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extending from 31N72W to Andros Island will stall and weaken from Bermuda to western Cuba Sat. A second front will move off northeast Florida late today then stall from 31N72W to West Palm Beach Florida through early Sun. Weak low pressure along the stalled front over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast across the Bahamas Sun then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas Sun night. The front will shift southeast Mon in the wake of the low pressure, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, before stalling and dissipating farther east Tue. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. Over the central Atlc, a deep layered low reflects at the surface as a 1012 mb low centered near 27N35W and a surface trough extending from the low SW to 22N40W. The upper level low also supports a cold front ahead of the low, extending from 31N31W to 21N34W to 17N56W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms associated with these features are N of 20N between 26W and 39W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos