000 AXNT20 KNHC 251103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 603 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near 07N12W and extends to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and in the vicinity of the boundaries from 01N-04N between 10W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the Florida Straits, then becomes stationary across the west tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. A 1026 mb high is centered on the coast at the Louisiana-Texas border. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail behind the front across the basin. The Gulf has no organized deep convection at this time, though there are some residual scattered showers within 60 nm of the front over the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the basin through Sat before another frontal boundary moves through the basin Sun. The next cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the west tip of Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front. A moderate pressure gradient induced by a 1031 mb high centered east of Bermuda is helping to promote fresh tradewinds across the basin. Slightly stronger winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean, mainly within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong NE winds over much of the Caribbean tonight. The front will weaken today. NW swell moving into Atlc waters off the Leeward Islands will subside today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlc from 32N74W to the east central coast of Florida at 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 120 nm east of the front mainly north of 25N. The front will stall and dissipate from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat, ahead of a reinforcing front moving into the region. The second front will stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Sun. Weak low pressure may form along the front over the Bahamas Mon and move northeast. Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N32W southwestward to 20N39W to 18N53W, where it transitions to a shear line to 21N69W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 180 nm east of the cold front mainly north of 21N. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlc. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA