000 AXNT20 KNHC 250517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1217 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near 09N13W and extends to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and in the vicinity of the boundaries from 01N-04N between 10W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from SW Florida to the west tip of Cuba, then to the Yucatan of Mexico where it becomes a stationary front. A 1022 mb high is centered on the coast at the Louisiana-Texas border. Northerly winds behind the front have diminished quickly today and are at the moderate to fresh categories currently. Peak seas have also dropped to 8-9 ft from northerly swell. The Gulf has no organized deep convection currently, though there are some residual scattered showers within 60 nm of the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the basin through Sat before another frontal boundary moves through the basin Sun. The next cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front currently extends from the west tip of Cuba to the Yucatan of Mexico, where it becomes a stationary front. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front. A moderate pressure gradient induced by a 1031 mb high centered east of Bermuda is helping to promote fresh tradewinds across the basin. Slightly stronger winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean, mainly within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong NE winds over much of the Caribbean tonight. The cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean overnight, then stall and dissipate from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Fri. NW swell moving into Atlc waters off the Leeward Islands will subside through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N76W to the east central coast of Florida at 27N80W. A pre-frontal squall line is located about 90 nm southeast of the front, and is affecting the northwestern Bahamas. The front will stall and dissipate from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat, ahead of a reinforcing front moving into the region. The second front will stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Sun. Weak low pressure may form along the front over the Bahamas Mon and move northeast. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N33W southwestward to 21N39W to 18N53W, where it transitions to a shear line to 21N71W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 180 nm of the cold front mainly north of 22N. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlc. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA