000 AXNT20 KNHC 231802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico... As of 23/12 UTC, a cold front has enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force NW to N winds are been observed behind the front over the Texas coastal waters. These will extend from the Texas waters to Veracruz, into the Bay of Campeche mainly W of 93W today. The gale force winds will follow the front through the next 24 hours. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong NE winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gale- force winds expected near the coast of Colombia each night through at least tonight. Recent scatterometer data indicates gale force winds from 10N-13N between 73W-77W. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warnings in the SW N Atlantic... A cold front will move off the Florida coast into the SW N Atlantic on Thu. SW gale-force winds are forecast on Thu morning ahead of the front N of 29N and W of 74W with seas 10 to 16 feet. These winds will continue east of the front as it moves east across the Atlantic through Fri. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Winds Expected Near the Coast of Morocco... Meteo France is forecasting gale-force winds today near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone called AGADIR. The Meteo France outlook for Thu calls for the possibility of gales in AGADIR. For additional information, please visit the Meteo France website at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W and extends to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 01N30W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate showers are 80 to 100 nm north of the ITCZ west of 26W to 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1037 mb surface high centered over the northeast Atlantic extends a ridge southward over the Southeast U.S. into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening low pressure system is over the Mississippi Valley generating tighter pressure gradient between the high and low system inducing strong to gale-force winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico ahead. A cold front extending southward from the low has entered the NW Gulf producing gale-force winds behind the front. The front extends from SW Louisiana near 29N93W to Tampico near 24N97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 180 nm southeast of the front and north of 25N west of 90W. Refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning in effect and the warnings in the forecast for today. The cold front will move across the Gulf waters today followed by strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas. Strong southerly winds are also expected ahead of the front, forecast to reach a position from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu as the front moves southeast of the region. Winds and seas will increase Sat into Sun over the southern Gulf as another frontal boundary moves through the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong 1037 mb high pressure north of the area is inducing widespread fresh to strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean Sea. Recent scatterometer data shows easterly moderate to fresh winds along the Lesser Antilles and fresh to strong winds across Southwestern Caribbean with gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia. Expect for these winds to prevail through Thu, with gale-force winds pulsing overnight off of the Colombia's coast. See the Special Features section above for more information about the Gale Warning currently in effect. Expect seas well over 8 feet for large portions of the Caribbean, highest from 10N-13N between 74W-77W, where 12-15 ft seas are expected. Winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of another cold front. This front is expected to move into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu, and will stall and dissipate from central Cuba to central Honduras by late Fri. NW swell will move into Atlc waters off the Leeward Islands tonight, then subside as it shifts south through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N44W to 21N59W. It continues as a stationary front from 21N59W to 20N74W. Scattered showers are noted E of the front, mainly N of 25N between 39W-45W. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic. The cold front over the central Atlantic will weaken today. High pressure building in the wake of the front will maintain fresh to strong E to SE winds over the area through late Thu before retreating eastward. The next cold front moves off the coast of Florida by early Thu. Gale-force winds will prevail N of 29N ahead of the front on Thu. See the Special Features section above for more details. The front will stall and weaken from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat. A weak reinforcing front will move off northeast Florida by late Sat, and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres