000 AXNT20 KNHC 231118 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 618 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico... A recent scatterometer pass detected gale-force winds over the eastern Gulf from 26N-27.5N between 85W-87W overnight. These conditions will continue through the morning hours. A cold front is entering the northwest Gulf as of 09Z. Gale-force NW to N winds are expected behind the front over the waters from Texas to Veracruz, mainly W of 93W. These winds will follow the front through the next 24 hours. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong NE winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia each night through at least tonight. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warnings in the SW N Atlantic... A cold front will move off the Florida coast into the SW N Atlantic on Thu. SW gale-force winds are forecast on Thu morning ahead of the front N of 29N and W of 74W with seas 10 to 16 feet. These winds will continue east of the front as it moves east across the Atlantic through Fri. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Winds Expected Near the Coast of Morocco... Meteo France is forecasting gale-force winds on Wed near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone called AGADIR. The Meteo France outlook for Thu calls for the possibility of gales in AGADIR. For additional information, please visit the Meteo France website at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 00N-05N between 25W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1038 mb surface high centered over the northeast Atlantic extends a ridge southward over the Southeast U.S. into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening low pressure system is over the south-central U.S. The pressure gradient generated between the high and low pressure systems is currently inducing strong to gale-force winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning in effect and the warnings in the forecast for today. The cold front will continue moving off the Texas coast this morning. Showers are thunderstorms are likely over the Gulf of Mexico prior to and along with the frontal passage. NW-N gale winds are expected over the western Gulf of Mexico today behind the front. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf by Thu as the front moves southeast of the region. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast by late Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Typical scattered trade winds showers are noted across the basin. Strong high pressure north of the area is inducing widespread fresh to strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean. Expect for these winds to prevail through Thu, with gale-force winds pulsing overnight off of the Colombia's coast. See the section above for more information about the Gale Warning currently in effect. Expect seas well over 8 feet for large portions of the Caribbean, highest from 10N-16N between 74W-80W, where 10-15 ft seas are expected. Farther east, large NW swell will move into Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands by tonight. Winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of another cold front. This front is expected to move into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu, and will stall and dissipate from central Cuba to central Honduras by late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N48W to 24N55W to 21N65W. It continues as a stationary front from 21N65W to 21N75W. A surface trough is just east of the front from 25N50W to 22N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of the front, mainly N of 26N between 43W- 47W. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic. The cold front over the central Atlantic will weaken today. High pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through the day before retreating eastward ahead of the next cold front moving off the coast of Florida by early Thu. Gale-force winds will prevail N of 29N ahead of the front on Thu. See the section above for more details. The front will stall and weaken from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat. Low pressure may develop along the front Sat near the northern Bahamas and move northeast. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA