000 AXNT20 KNHC 221117 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 617 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Thu night and increase to at or near gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico... A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf tonight. Gale force NW to N winds are expected Wednesday behind the front in the western Gulf from S Texas to Veracruz, mainly W of 93W. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N30W to 00N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-03N between 18W-29W, and from 02S-03N between 31W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1039 mb surface high over W Pennsylvania extends a ridge southward over the Gulf of Mexico, leading to relatively benign weather and moderate winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast low level stratocumulus clouds still covers the central Gulf. Mid to upper level ridging also covers the Gulf of Mexico with strong subsidence. Fresh to strong SE flow will spread from the northwest Gulf across the basin today, ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast tonight. Strong NW winds will follow the front, reaching gale force over the western Gulf Wed. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf Thu as the front moves southeast of the region. Looking ahead, SE flow will increase again Sat ahead of another front moving off the Texas coast Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 22/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Windward Passage near 20N73W to W Jamaica near 18N78W. The front becomes stationary from 18N78W to E Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front N of 16N and E of 82W. Isolated showers are near and within 120 nm NW of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail within 240 nm NW of the front, with moderate to fresh winds closer to the Yucatan Channel. Only typical isolated trade wind showers are noted over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. A stalled and weakening frontal boundary from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras will dissipate today. Strong high pressure north of the area behind the front will maintain strong NE winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gales pulsing off Colombia. Winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of another cold front expected to move into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu. The second front will stall then dissipate from central Cuba to central Honduras by late Fri. Looking ahead, a third front will enter the northwest Caribbean Sun and reach from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun night. Farther east, NW swell will move into Atlc waters off the Leeward Islands by Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic cold front will become stationary from north of Puerto Rico to near the Windward Passage late today then dissipate through Thu. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds through mid week. Strong southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida by Thu ahead of another cold front, reaching gale force north of 30N. Winds and seas will diminish through late week as the front continues east, stalling and weakening from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat. Looking ahead, a weak disturbance will form along the front Sun in the northern Bahamas and move northeast. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa