000 AXNT20 KNHC 221030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 530 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Thu night and increase to at or near gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico... A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wednesday morning. Gale force NW to N winds are expected Wednesday behind the front in the western Gulf from S Texas to Veracruz, mainly W of 93W. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N21W to 00N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-02N between 18W-28W, and from 02S-02N between 30W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1038 mb surface high over Ohio extends a ridge southward over the Gulf of Mexico, leading to relatively benign weather and moderate winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast low level stratocumulus clouds still covers the central Gulf. Mid to upper level ridging also covers the Gulf of Mexico with strong subsidence. Strong high pressure ridging extending southward over the Gulf from the central United States will shift eastward toward Cape Hatteras as low pressure deepens over the southern Plains. This will allow for strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico by Tue morning and the remainder of the basin by Tue night. Another strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed followed by gale force northwest to north winds over the far western Gulf from southern Texas to the coast of Mexico near Veracruz. This front will reach from near the NE Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula early Thu, then weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Thu night. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Windward Passage near 20N74W to W Jamaica near 18N78W. The front becomes stationary from 18N78W to E Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front N of 16N and E of 82W. Isolated showers are near and within 120 nm NW of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail within 240 nm NW of the front, with moderate to fresh winds closer to the Yucatan Channel. Only typical isolated trade wind showers are noted over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean through Wed night, and increase to at or near gale force along the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere through tonight. A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N78W, then becomes stationary to northeastern Honduras. The front weaken through Tue evening. Strong high pressure building over the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient over the basin Tue through Fri. This will result in strong trades over most of the eastern and central Caribbean. Strong offshore gap winds will affect the lee of Cuba, and also blow through the Mona and Windward passages, especially Wed through Thu. Winds and seas will subside over most areas Fri through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N61W to 27N63W to the Windward Passage near 20N74W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 240 nm E of the front N of 25N. Scattered showers are along and within 150 nm E of the front S of 25N. Winds of 20-25 kt prevail near and west of the front. Broken to overcast low level stratocumulus clouds are W of the front to Florida. A surface trough is along 49/50W from 20N-26N. East of 40W, mostly quiet weather prevails due to broad high pressure ridging. However, fresh to strong trades cover most of the E Atlantic from 20N-30N. The forecast from Meteo France mentions that near gales are likely occurring now near the coast of Morocco in the marine zones of TARFAYA and AGADIR. These near gales are expected to persist in that area into Thursday. Over the W Atlantic, the tail end of the front will become stationary from north of Puerto Rico to near the Windward Passage by Wed evening. Strong north to northeast winds will develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure builds north of the front. These winds will persist until early Thu as the strong high pressure shifts eastward over the western Atlantic waters north of the area. Another strong cold front will move off the Florida coast on Thu afternoon. The front will reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba Fri afternoon, from near 31N69W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Fri night and from near 31N66W to 25N72W and stationary to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Sat. Strong to gale force southerly winds will precede the front along with building seas through Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow in behind the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa