000 AXNT20 KNHC 212349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 649 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night and increase to at or near gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico... A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wednesday morning. Gale force NW to N winds are expected Wednesday behind the front in the western Gulf from S Texas to Veracruz, mainly W of 93W. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N27W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 210 nm of both axes between the west coast of Africa and the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1038 mb surface high over Ohio extends a ridge southward over the Gulf of Mexico, leading to relatively benign weather and moderate winds over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Mid to upper level ridging covers the western two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico. The strong high pressure ridge extending over the Gulf will shift eastward as low pressure deepens over the southern Plains. This will allow for strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico late tonight and early Tue morning. Winds over the remainder of the basin will increase to fresh by late Tue morning and strong by Tue night. A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed followed by gale force northwest to north winds over the far western Gulf from southern Texas to the coast of Mexico near Veracruz. This front will reach from near the NE Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula early Thu, then weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Thu night. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near Guantanamo Bay Cuba near 20N76W to 18N79W. The front becomes stationary from 18N79W to E Honduras near 15N83W to NW Nicaragua near 13N86W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front N of 16N and E of 82W. Isolated showers are near and within 120 nm NW of the front S of 16N and W of 82W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail within 180 nm NW of the front, with moderate to fresh winds closer to the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is analyzed just east of the front over western Haiti extending southward to 15N95W. Only typical isolated trade wind showers are noted over the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean through Wed night, and increase to at or near gale force along the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere through tonight. The front that extends from E Cuba to E Honduras will become fully stationary by late tonight and begin to weaken then drift northward from Cuba westward Tue morning and night. Strong high pressure building over the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient over the basin Tue through Fri. This will result in strong trades over most of the eastern and central Caribbean. Strong offshore gap winds will affect the lee of Cuba, and also blow through the Mona and Windward passages, especially Wed through Thu. Seas over the central Caribbean will build Tuesday, peaking Wed through early Thu at 10 to 15 feet, highest S of 15N between 74W-79W. Winds and seas will subside over most areas Fri through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N62W to 27N66W to Guantanamo Bay Cuba near 20N76W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 150 nm E of the front N of 25N. Scattered showers are along and within 150 nm E of the front S of 25N. Winds of 20-25 kt prevail near and west of the front. Waves of 13 ft were recently measured near 30N69W by an altimeter. A surface trough is along 49/50W from 24N-31N. Upper-level diffluence in the area is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 22N-29N between 44W-49W. East of 40W, mostly quiet weather prevails due to broad high pressure ridging. However, fresh to strong trades cover most of the E Atlantic from 20N-30N. The forecast from Meteo France mentions that near gales are likely occurring now near the coast of Morocco in the marine zones called TARFAYA and AGADIR. These near gales are expected to persist in that area into Thursday. The cold front that extends from near 32N62W to near 20N76W will become stationary oriented ENE-WSW from north of Puerto Rico to near the Windward Passage by Wed evening. Strong winds will develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure builds north of the front. These winds will persist until Thu as the strong high pressure shifts eastward over the western Atlantic waters north of the area. Seas of 10-17 ft are expected tonight and Tuesday, especially N of 25N and east of 72W. Tue night into Wed night, seas near 12 ft will affect most of the waters from 20N-25N between 65W and the SE Bahamas. Another strong cold front will move off the Florida coast on Thu afternoon. The front will reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba Fri afternoon, from near 31N69W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Fri night and from near 31N66W to 25N72W and stationary to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Sat. Strong to gale force southerly winds will precede the front along with building seas through Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow behind the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen