000 AXNT20 KNHC 202354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 654 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic... Gale force winds continue along with a cold front over the W Atlantic. At 2100 UTC, the front extends from 32N73W to 25N77W. Minimal gale force winds will continue on either side of the front N of 28N through late tonight as the front moves E. Seas over 15 feet are forecast north of 27N near and behind the front E of 78W. For additional information on this warning, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to at or near gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 05N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N23W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north and within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough between the coast of Liberia and 18W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 270 nm of the ITCZ between 18W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A thin layer of low-level stratocumulus clouds prevails over much of the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf, along with a colder airmass. Strong high pressure has moved in behind the recent cold front. Strong NW to N winds are observed over the eastern Gulf. Winds have decreased to fresh over the western Gulf. Although the winds are diminishing, high seas still exist over the southeastern Gulf. Winds and seas across the Gulf will continue to subside through early Monday. The surface high pressure over east Texas and the NW Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward as low pressure deepens over the southern Plains, allowing for strong SE to S return flow to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico by Tue morning. The strong return flow will expand to the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tue night. Another strong cold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf of Mexico by Wed morning, with the possibility of gale force northerly winds behind it over the far western Gulf and near the coast of Mexico. This front will reach from near the NE Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula early Thu and weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Thu night followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from near Cienfuegos Cuba near 22N81W to the coast of Belize near 17N88W and inland to the Guatemala/Mexico border near 16N92W. A surface trough is analyzed just ahead of the front from 15N86W to 18N85W to 20N83W. Scattered showers are seen within 60 nm of the cold front. Scattered showers are also over the Gulf of Honduras near the trough and in between the trough and the front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds cover the NW Caribbean behind the front to the Yucatan Channel along with seas to 8 ft. Farther east, no significant convection is present. However, trade winds are fresh to strong across a large area of the south central Caribbean, and moderate to locally fresh farther north and east. The strongest winds continue to be near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean through Wed night and increase to at or near gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean through late Mon. The strong cold front over the NW Caribbean is moving SE. The front will weaken but still extend from SE Cuba to the NW and N central coast of Honduras on Mon night, and begin to drift N from Cuba westward from Tue morning until Tue night. Strong high pres building over the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient over the basin Tue through Thu resulting in strong winds across almost all of the eastern and central Caribbean beginning Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 2100 UTC, a strong cold front in the western Atlantic extends from 32N73W to Nassau Bahamas near 25N77W to near Cienfuegos Cuba near 22N81W. A line of numerous moderate to scattered strong convection about 90 nm wide extends to about 60 nm ahead and 30 nm behind the front from 23N to 32N, including portions of the central and northwest Bahamas. South and west of about 23N77W, the line consists of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the N coast of Cuba, with scattered showers over Cuba. Gale force winds are on both sides of the front north of 28N. See section above for more details on the gale. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N48W to 22N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-32N between 44W-50W. Most of this convection is occurring just east of an upper-level trough axis and just west of an upper-level anticyclonic circulation. The area east of 40W is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb high near 34N29W. The strong cold front over the western Atlantic will reach from near 30N65W to 26N70W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Mon morning and from 27N65W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Mon night. The front will begin weakening and become stationary Tue afternoon from near 23N65W to near the Windward Passage. Strong winds will develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure builds north of the front. These winds will persist through Wed night as the strong high slowly shifts eastward over the western Atlc north of the area. The next cold front is expected to move off the Florida coast on Thu afternoon, reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba Fri afternoon and from near 31N69W to the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba Fri night followed by strong northwest to north winds and building seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen