000 AXNT20 KNHC 201056 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 555 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the western Gulf of Mexico... A strong cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N88W as of 20/0900 UTC. ASCAT data and recent surface observations indicate that gale force winds are occurring S of 21N W of 95W. The gale will continue tonight over the western Gulf of Mexico, diminishing below gale this morning. Strong winds will then taper off across the basin from west to east on Sunday night. ...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic... Southerly winds will increase over the western Atlantic tonight ahead of the cold front that is currently moving eastward over N Florida. The cold front will move into the Atlantic shortly, and reach from 30N65W to SE Cuba Monday morning. Gale force winds are forecast to begin on 20/1200 UTC N of 28N up to 120 nm E of front. Seas will build to over 20 feet. ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to at or near gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional information on all of these warning areas, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S-03N between 20W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 20/0900 UTC, a strong cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N88W. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over the SE Gulf, together with central and south Florida, moving E. Refer to the section above for more details on the gale. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front N of 21N until the front exits SE of the Gulf later this morning. Gales will continue along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz until around sunrise this morning. Surface ridging southward over the Gulf will shift E and allow strong SE to S return flow to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico by Tue morning. The strong return flow will expand to the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tue night. Another strong cold front could enter the NW Gulf of Mexico by Wed morning and introduce another round of gales to the Mexican coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean. Only typical patches of low clouds and isolated showers exist in a few spots. The trade winds are strongest over the central Caribbean. A Gale is presently ongoing along the coast of N Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the S central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night and increase to near gale or gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sea later this morning, then move SE and extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The front will weaken but still extend from SE Cuba to the NW and N central coast of Honduras on Monday night, and then start to weaken and drift N from Cuba westward from Tuesday morning until Tuesday night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas to 8 ft are expected W of the front, from Sunday morning until Monday night. Strong high pres building over the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient over the basin Tue through Thu. As a result, strong winds will affect almost all of the eastern and central Caribbean during this time frame. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Florida N of 25N and W of 78W, to include the N Bahamas. Upper level diffluence over the W Atlantic is also producing scattered showers elsewhere N of 25N and W of 68W. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N46W to 22N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-34N between 43W-50W. A 1033 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N29W. Over the W Atlantic, The cold front will reach from 31N72W to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W tonight, from 30N65W to 26N70W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday morning, from 27N65W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday night. The front will begin weakening and become stationary on Tuesday afternoon from 23N65W to near the Windward Passage. Minimal gale force winds will be possible on either side of the front N of 28N and W of 65W from this morning through Monday morning. Seas will build to near 20 feet in NW swell behind the front near 31N65W on Tues. Strong winds will develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure builds to the N of the front. These winds will persist through Wed night as the strong high slowly shifts E over the western Atlc near 35N. The next cold front should push E from Florida on Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa