000 AXNT20 KNHC 192351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the western Gulf of Mexico... A strong cold front extends from Mobile Alabama to the coast of Mexico near 20N96.5W as of 19/2100 UTC. ASCAT data from this morning and recent surface observations from late this afternoon indicate that gale force winds are occurring over most of the area west of 92W in the northern Gulf and west of 94W in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The gales will continue tonight over the western Gulf of Mexico, diminishing below gale by early Sunday morning. Strong winds will then taper off across the basin from west to east on Sunday night. ...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic... Southerly winds will increase over the western Atlantic tonight ahead of the cold front that is currently moving eastward in the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will move into the Atlantic east of Florida on Sunday morning, and reach from 30N65W to SE Cuba Monday morning. Gale force winds are forecast N of 28N on both sides of the front early Sunday through early Monday as the front moves eastward. Seas will build to over 15 feet N of 28N east of 75W behind the front Sunday afternoon into Monday. ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to at or near gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional information on all of these warning areas, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 02N13W to 00N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S29W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near and within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between the coast of Africa and 14W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 270 nm north and 180 nm south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from just east of Mobile Alabama near 30N88W to the coast of Mexico near 20N96.5W, then continues inland over central and northern Mexico. A line of strong thunderstorms accompanies the front north of 26N. Additional scattered thunderstorms are seen farther east over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are elsewhere along and within 120 nm ahead of the front. A reinforcing cold front is analyzed roughly 90 nm behind the first cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Both cold fronts are moving quickly eastward. A 19/1518 UTC ASCAT pass shows gale force winds over the Gulf of Mexico west of the second front. Refer to the section above for more details on the gales. The main cold front will extend from South Florida to the Yucatan Channel early Sunday morning and exit the Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday morning. Strong winds will taper off across the basin from west to east on Sunday night. A surface ridge from the N will shift E and allow strong SE to S return flow to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday morning. The strong return flow will expand to the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night. Another strong cold front may enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean. Only typical patches of low clouds and isolated showers exist in a few spots. The trade winds are strongest near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the S central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night and increase to at or near gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Wednesday. Refer to the section above for more details. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Sunday morning, move SE and extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sunday night and from SE Cuba to E Honduras Monday. The front is forecast to stall and weaken on Tuesday. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas to 8 ft are expected W of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Mid to upper level SW wind over the Gulf of Mexico is pushing moisture over the western Atlantic, leading to isolated to scattered showers to the north of the Bahamas. To the east, two surface troughs are located over the central Atlantic, one from 23N59W to 32N56W and the other from 21N53W to 29N48W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is occurring from 24N-31N between 44W-53W, mainly due to an upper-level trough in the area. High pressure dominates the area east of 35W, anchored by a 1032 mb high near 34N28W. Southerly winds will strengthen tonight ahead of a cold front that will move east of Florida on Sunday morning. The front will reach from 31N72W to 23N80W Sunday night, from 30N65W to 25N71W to SE Cuba Monday morning, and become stationary on Tuesday from 24N65W to Haiti. This weather system will produce gales and high seas over portions of the area. See section above for details. Strong winds will develop between the front and 25N on Tuesday, as strong high pressure builds to the N of the front. Winds will subside on Tuesday night and Wednesday as the front weakens and high pressure shifts E. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen