000 AXNT20 KNHC 181727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1227 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure caused by a surface high pressure system north of the area over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South America is expected to cause strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea. These winds are forecast to reach gale force during the night time hours during the next couple of days when the pressure gradient is strongest. ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is expected to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday morning, and it should move quickly southeastward. The front is expected to clear the entire Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning, bringing a much cooler air mass in its wake. Strong northerly winds, which are forecast to reach gale force, are expected behind the boundary. ...GALE WARNING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... Southerly winds are expected to increase over portions of the western Atlantic on Saturday ahead of the cold front that will be moving over the Gulf of Mexico. The tight pressure gradient between the front and high pressure over the central Atlantic is forecast to cause southerly winds to reach gale force off the northern Florida and Georgia coast by Sunday morning. For additional informtation on all of these warning areas, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point and dips below the equator near 22W and extends to the coast of Brazil near 3S43W. Scattered moderate convection exists from the equator to 5N between 11W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection also exists within 240 n mi north of the ITCZ between 26W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough marked by a line of low-level clouds extends across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, surface high pressure and fair weather exists across the remainder of the region. The high is also allowing winds to be light across the area, except over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico where southerly winds are beginning to increase ahead of a low pressure system currently over the south-central United States. The high pressure system is expected to shift east of the area on Saturday as a strong cold front moves over the northwestern waters with gale force winds forecast to occur behind it. See above for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean Sea. Only typical patches of low clouds and perhaps some embedded isolated showers exist across the region. The trade winds are strongest near the coast of Colombia, and they are expected to reach gale force during the night time hours this weekend. See above for more details. Otherwise, winds are light to moderate across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A series of troughs exist across the subtropical Atlantic. The weakest one of the group lies over the northwestern Bahamas, and this feature is only producing disorganized cloudiness near its axis. Another trough or weak surface low lies just to the northeast of the central Bahamas, with a few showers likely from 23N to 27N between 70W and 73W. A weak 1018 mb surface low lies over the central Atlantic near 26N 60W, with no significant cloudiness noted in satellite images. More significant showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are located farther east north of 25N between 45W and 49W, primarily associated with an upper-level trough. High pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic supported by a 1032 mb nar 34N 28W. The big weather event this weekend is expected to be associated with a strong cold front that is forecast to move over the far western Atlantic on Sunday. Gale-force winds are forecast ahead of this boundary. See above for more details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cangialosi