000 AXNT20 KNHC 181055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 555 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Surface ridging north of the Caribbean will enhance E to NE tradewinds to minimal gale force each night near the coast of Colombia through Monday. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz Mexico Saturday night and clear the basin past South Florida and the Yucatan Channel on Sunday morning. Winds to gale force are forecast behind the front Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04N37W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 80 to 100 nm northwest of the monsoon trough between 09W-15W. Scattered moderate convection are present in the proximity of the ITCZ and extend 220 nm north and 180 nm south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge covers the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are over the SW Gulf extending from the Yucatan Peninsula across the Bay of Campeche into Veracruz, Mexico. Elsewhere, no organized deep convection present. Scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf. High pressure will dominate the basin through today. High pressure ridging W over the Gulf from the Atlc will shift E today. Fresh to strong S return flow will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sat. A strong cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sat morning. It is likely that a line of rainshowers and thunderstorms may precede the front. Winds to gale force are expected behind the front along the coast of Mexico near Tampico on Saturday afternoon and near Veracruz Saturday night. Winds should top out around 40 kt near Veracruz. The front should exit the Gulf by Sun evening and allow strong winds to taper off over the basin by sunrise on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends over the Central Bahamas. Scattered showers are observed near Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. GOES-16 satellite images show relatively higher amounts of moisture over the northern Caribbean with dry air over the southern Caribbean. 10 to 20 kt tradewinds cover the Caribbean with no significant convection present. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over S central Caribbean through Tue night. Gale force winds currently occurring along the immediate coast of Colombia will return tonight and Sat night, then again Mon night and Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will cross the NW Caribbean Sea on Sunday and Monday, then stall and weaken. The front will reach from the Yucatan Channel to the central coast of Honduras on Sunday morning, and then extend from SE Cuba to the eastern coast of Honduras on Sunday night. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough is near 29N78W to 25N79W. Scattered shower activity is between the eastern Bahamas and Southeast coast of Florida. A surface trough extends from 27N73W to the central Bahamas near 23N74W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A cold front extends from across our border at 31N48W to 27N57W. A stationary front extends from that point to a weak 1018 mb low pressure centered at 26N59W to 24N62W. Scattered moderate convection extends 180 nm east of the front north of 22N, in an area where upper-level diffluence is prevalent. Surface trough ahead of the front extends from 30N47W to 24N54W. Scattered moderate convection is within the axis of the trough and the proximity of the cold front to the east. Surface high pressure ridging extends over most of the eastern half of the basin north of 18N. Weak high pressure will drift E from the SE United States toward Bermuda through Sat afternoon. Winds will veer to the S, and then strengthen Sat afternoon through Sun morning E of Florida. A strong cold front will push off the Florida peninsula Sun morning and extend from 31N79W to 28N80W, then reach from 31N74W to 27N75W to eastern Cuba Sun night and finally stretch from 27N65W to near the Windward Passage on Monday. Minimal gale force winds will be possible on either side of the front N of 28N and W of 60W Sun through Mon. Seas could build to as high as 20 ft in NW swell behind the front near 31N65W on Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres