000 AXNT20 KNHC 161711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1211 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer winds at 1410 UTC this morning over the southwestern Caribbean showed E to SE tradewinds up to 30 kt near the Colombia coastline. The surface ridge will build slightly north of the Caribbean during the next few days. This will enhance the tradewinds up to minimal gale near the Colombia coastline Thursday evening, Friday evening, and possibly Saturday evening. Conditions should subside slightly on Sunday. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of West Africa near 08N14W and extends to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N-05N between 15W-23W and also from 00N-03N between 37W and the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge is centered over the southeastern U.S. forcing 10-20 kt winds over the Gulf that shifts anticyclonically from NE over the eastern Gulf to SE over the western. No significant deep convection is currently present over the Gulf. A weak 1021 mb low is present over lower Texas coast with a trailing trough extending south from the low along the northeastern Mexico coast. Scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm of the northeastern Mexico coast and the lower Texas coast. On Friday night S winds will be enhanced in the western Gulf ahead of a strong cold front. The front will emerge Saturday and quickly race across the Gulf, reaching south Florida and Cuba by Sunday. There will be the potential for strong thunderstorms ahead and along the front on Saturday and Sunday. Additionally, N gales behind the front are likely on the weekend as well with strongest winds near the Mexican coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. See discussion above for more information. Elsewhere 10-20 kt tradewinds cover the Caribbean with no organized deep convection present. Isolated showers are occurring near the Leeward Islands including Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and the northwestern Caribbean. On Sunday a strong cold front will reach the northwestern Caribbean and reach central America by Monday. At this time, N gales are not anticipated in the western Caribbean from this strong front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from across our border at 31N56W to 24N69W. Winds are generally 10-20 kt across the front, while scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of the front north of 27N. A secondary cold front is analyzed from 31N63W to 28N69W. Likewise winds with this front are weak and scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front. These two fronts should merge by Thursday and continue eastward across the central Atlantic. Saturday night S to SW winds will be enhanced ahead of a strong approaching cold front north of the Bahamas. These SW winds are anticipated to reach gale force on Sunday and Monday as the front quickly moves eastward. The N winds behind the front should remain below gale force. There will also be the potential for strong thunderstorms ahead and along the front on Sunday and Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea