000 AXNT20 KNHC 151147 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A gale warning is in effect off the coast of Colombia from 10N to 12.5N between 74W and 77W, and last until 15/1800 UTC. The gale is forecast to resume on 16/0600 UTC, and end again on 16/1800 UTC. See the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 04N-04S between 25W-37W north and south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1031 mb high pressure remains in control across the Gulf of Mexico with moderate to fresh winds across central and western Gulf. Fair weather prevails across the basin with broken to overcast clouds. High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf by Fri night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to reach the NW Gulf by late Sat. Gale conditions are possible behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... In the upper levels, a ridge is in control across the Caribbean, with subsidence covering the entire Caribbean Sea. Latest Scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate E winds across Eastern and Southern Caribbean, while fresh to strong ENE winds are off the coast of Colombia from 13N-09N between 72W-77W. Scattered showers are possible over the NW Caribbean along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula N of 17N and W of 84W. Further S, scattered showers are over Guatemala. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south-central Caribbean Sea through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends south across the W Atlantic from 31N62W to 25N69W to the north-central Bahamas near 24N77W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NW winds behind the cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend 90 nm ahead of the front north of 28N. Further east, a 1018 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N47W. A cold front extends S from the low to 27N50W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. There are two surface trough, one extends from 21N45W to 14N47W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough. The second trough is located near 30N27W to 25N22W. No significant weather is present. A cold front extending from 29N65W to the Bahamas will reach from 27N65W to the southern Bahamas on Wed, then stall and weaken from 26N65W to Turks and Caicos on Thu. A reinforcing surge of cool air will freshen the winds east of the northern Bahamas Wed night and Thu. Southerly winds will strengthen Sat and Sun east of Florida. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres