000 AXNT20 KNHC 150600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A gale is forecast along the coast of N Colombia from 10N to 12.5N between 74W and 77W on 15/0600 UTC, and last until 15/1800 UTC. The gale is forecast to resume on 16/0600 UTC, and end again on 16/1800 UTC. See the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends 100 to 180 nm north and south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb high pressure centered over Arkansas is in control across the basin with gentle to moderate northeast wind. Fair weather prevails across the Gulf with broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds over the NE Gulf. High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf by Fri night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to reach the NW Gulf by late Sat. Gale conditions are possible behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean, while a weak trough is over the E Caribbean. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea and Central America. Scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate E winds across the Eastern and Southern Caribbean, while fresh to strong ENE winds are off the coast of Colombia from 13N-09N between 72W-77W. Scattered showers are possible over the NW Caribbean along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula N of 17N and W of 84W. Further S, scattered showers are over Guatemala. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south-central Caribbean Sea through Sat night, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds will reach gale force near the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will generally prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends south across the W Atlantic from 31N64W to 27N69W to the northern Bahamas near 25N76W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NW winds behind and SE wind ahead of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend 90 nm ahead of the front north of 28N. Further east, a 1018 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N47W. A cold front extends S from the low to 27N50W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. There are two surface trough, one extends from 21N44W with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough and the second trough is from 30N26W to 25N20W with no significant weather present. A cold front extending from 31N64W to the NW Bahamas will reach from 28N65W to the central Bahamas by early Tue morning, from 27N65W to the SE Bahamas and the coast of central Cuba by Tue night. Then, the front will begin to weaken from 26N65W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba on Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected on either side of the front N of 29N through tonight. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres