000 AXNT20 KNHC 150004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 PM EST Mon Jan 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A gale is forecast along the coast of N Colombia from 10N to 12.5N between 74W and 77W on 15/0600 UTC, and last until 15/1800 UTC. The gale is forecast to resume on 16/0600 UTC, and end again on 16/1800 UTC. See the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 01S22W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04S-03N between 32W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 14/2100 UTC a dissipating cold front has basically just exited the Straits of Florida. A 1034 mb high is centered over NE Texas near 34N86W. 10-20 kt NE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds along the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds are over the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, a surface trough is off the coast of Tampico Mexico from 22N98W to 20N95W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the trough. High pressure in the wake of the dissipating cold front will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf by Fri night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to reach the NW Gulf by late Sat. Gale conditions are possible behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 14/2100 UTC, a dissipating cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N81W to the NE Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W to the SE Bay of Campeche near 19N91W. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean N of 19N and W of 84W. Further S, scattered showers are over Guatemala. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean, while a trough is over the E Caribbean. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea and Central America. A Gale Warning is in effect along the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south- central Caribbean Sea through Fri night, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds will reach minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia at night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will generally prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N66W to 28N70W to 26N75W. A dissipating cold front continues to W Cuba near 23N81W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the cold front. A 1018 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N47W. a cold front extends S from the low to 31N45W to 28N51W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front. A 1016 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N24W with no significant weather. Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will extend from 31N62W to 27N72W to 23N79W tonight, then from 27N65W to the central Bahamas by early Tue afternoon, and from 25N65W to the SE Bahamas by early Wed afternoon. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected on either side of the front N of 29N through tonight with building seas of 8 to 10 ft. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa