000 AXNT20 KNHC 141711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1210 PM EST Mon Jan 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges over the eastern Atlantic from the coast of Africa near 08N13W and extends to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W to 02S32W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is south of 02N between 27W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 25N80W to 21N94W. Scattered showers are observed along the front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin on the wake of the front. To the west, a surface trough has formed over the far western Gulf waters extending from 24N97W to 21N96W. The front will continue moving southeast away from the basin by tonight. The surface trough over the western Gulf will shift slowly west over Mexico during the next couple of days. The next cold front will cross the northern waters Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the northwest Caribbean from 22N86W to 19N87W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough mainly west of 85W. The remainder of the basin is relatively quiet, although scattered low-topped showers are embedded in the trade wind flow across the entire basin. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia from 11N-13N east of 79W. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of the central Caribbean, while mainly moderate winds prevail over the eastern and western Caribbean. The surface trough across the northwest Caribbean will dissipate by Tuesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south- central Caribbean Sea through the end of the work-week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The winds will pulse to near-gale force at night along the coast of NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will generally prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N70W to 28N77W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are seen along the front mainly north of 27N. To the east, a surface trough extends along 60W between 28N-31N. Another trough extends from 26N56W to 21N52W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm east of the trough, mainly between 19N-24N. A 1016 mb surface low is centered over the east Atlantic near 29N26W, with surface trough extending from the low to 23N31W. The cold front over the west Atlantic will reach from 30N64W to the Turks and Caicos on early Tuesday morning, from 24N65W to N of Hispaniola early on Wednesday, stalling on Thursday morning from 25N65W to 24N68W before dissipating E of the area over the weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected north of 29N through tonight as the front moves eastward. Another cold front may drop south of 31N on Friday. The marine conditions will remain fairly tranquil during the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA