000 AXNT20 KNHC 141133 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 633 AM EST Mon Jan 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges over the eastern Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 01N16W. The ITCZ continues from 01N16W to 00N27W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S-04N between 25W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Grand Bahama Island to the Florida Keys to 23N87W to 21N94W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the cold front between 84W-87W and west of 91W. A surface trough has formed over the far western Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Mexico from 20N96W to 22N97.5W to 25N97.5W. Broken to overcast clouds and isolated showers are from 21N-24N west of 95W. The cold front that extends from the Florida Keys to 21N94W will pass through the Straits of Florida today and move out of the area tonight. The surface trough in the SW Gulf will remain near the coast of Mexico extending northward to the Texas coastal waters through mid-week. The trough will shift W and inland by the end of the week as ridging builds in from the E. A weak cold front will move across the northern waters Thu afternoon through Fri evening when it is expected to dissipate just N of Tampa Bay. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 18N86W to 22N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 20N-22N between 84W-87W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are noted in the Gulf of Honduras south of 17N. The remainder of the basin is relatively quiet, although isolated showers are embedded in the trade wind flow across the entire basin. Evening scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia from 11N-13N east of 79W. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of the central Caribbean, while mainly moderate winds cover the eastern and western Caribbean. A surface trough moving N of the Gulf of Honduras will reach the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Belize today along with showers and locally strong winds. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The winds will pulse to near gale force at night along the coast of NW Colombia. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N73W to 28N78W to Grand Bahama Island to the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen north of 27N between 67W and the cold front with fresh SW winds east of the front and fresh NW winds west of the front north of 28N. A surface trough is along 59/60W from 24N-30N. Scattered showers are within 60 nm west and within 120 nm east of the trough, mainly north of 26N. Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N47W to 28N50W. Scattered showers are located between 40W and the cold front north of 28N. A surface trough extends from 25N51W to 20N52W. An upper-level trough axis in the vicinity extends its axis from 30N48W to 19N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 19N-25N between 47W-52W. Farther east, a 1014 mb surface low is near 30N25W. An associated weakening upper low to the north of the surface low is supporting scattered thunderstorms from 27N- 32N between 20W-24W. The cold front extending from 31N73W to the Florida Keys will reach from 30N64W to the Turks and Caicos on early Tue morning, from 24N65W to N of Hispaniola early on Wed, stalling on Thu morning from 25N65W to 24N68W before dissipating E of the area over the weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected N of 29N today and tonight as the front moves eastward. Another cold front may drop S of 31N Fri and Fri night. The marine conditions will remain fairly tranquil, overall, during the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen