000 AXNT20 KNHC 132343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 643 PM EST Sun Jan 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges over the eastern Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S37W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S to 07N between 06W and 21W, and from 00N to 04N between 32W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N82W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W to Tuxpan Mexico near 21N98W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 15-20 kt northerly winds are NW of the front. Water vapor imagery shows drier air behind the front covering the NW Gulf of Mexico as a ridge of high pressure builds in behind the front. The cold front will pass through the Straits of Florida to NW Cuba to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 21N95W on Mon morning, moving out of the area Tue. A surface trough will develop on Mon morning in the SW Gulf extending northward to the Texas coastal waters through mid-week. The trough will shift W and inland by the end of the week as ridging builds in from the E. A strong cold front may reach the NW Gulf waters by late Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 21N86W to 17N84W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of either side of the trough. Additional isolated showers are embedded in the trade wind flow across the entire basin. Late morning scatterometer imagery indicated strong NE winds within about 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia, N of 11N. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of the central Caribbean, while mainly moderate winds cover the eastern and western Caribbean. The trough in the NW Caribbean will shift W over the Yucatan Peninsula by Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. The winds will pulse to near gale force at night along the coast of NW Colombia. Expect possible rainshowers, for the next three days, in the coastal sections from the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has emerged just offshore the northeast coast of Florida this evening. As of 2100 UTC, a pre-frontal trough extends from 31N78W to 28N81W, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along with fresh southerly winds within 180 nm E of the trough axis. High pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Over the central Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N47W to 25N53W. A surface trough extends from 24N51W to 19N52W. Isolated moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms are from 20N to 31N between 44W and 52W. An upper low with an associated 1014 mb surface low centered near 29N25W is supporting scattered thunderstorms from 28N to 31N between 21N and 27W. The cold front will reach from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas to the coast of Cuba near 23N79W on Mon morning, from 29N65W to 24N71W to the Windward Passage Tue morning, then from 25N65W to 23N70W and weakening to the coast of north central Hispaniola on Wed morning. Another cold front may drop S of 31N over the southwestern north Atlantic Fri and Fri night. The stationary front over the central Atlantic is expected to begin moving eastward as a cold front on Mon before dissipating Mon night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto