000 AXNT20 KNHC 130538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1238 AM EST Sun Jan 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N26W and into the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 00N-08N between 11W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 00N-04N between 32W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near Mobile Alabama to 27.5N90W to 23N95.5W to Tampico Mexico and inland over northern Mexico. Radar imagery shows scattered showers ahead of the front north of 28.5N between 85W-88W and over the western Florida Panhandle. Isolated showers are elsewhere near and ahead of the front. Water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air behind the front filtering into the NW Gulf of Mexico and limiting any additional shower activity. The cold front from Mobile Alabama to Tampico Mexico will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico Mexico today, pushing SE of the basin Mon. A surface trough will develop offshore of Veracruz Mexico in the SW Gulf Mon, lingering over the western Gulf through Wed before pushing W and inland as ridging builds in from the E. The ridging will then dominate through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 84W from 15N-21N, with possible isolated showers between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also noted over Haiti. Elsewhere across the basin, the weather is fairly quiet as dry mid-level air covers the region. A weak trough in the NW Caribbean will shift W through today. Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean the next several days, with winds pulsing to near gale at night NW of the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front emerges off the Georgia coast near 31N81W and extends NE to 32N79W and continues NE out of the forecast area. Isolated showers are present in the area. A cold front enters the forecast area near 32N61W and extends to 31N66W to 31N74W. Isolated showers are possible in the area. A stationary front extends from 32N52W to 29N54W to 26N59W, dissipating to 22N62W. A shear line extends from 22N62W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A surface trough is east of the stationary front from 23N54W to 28N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-32N between 47W-56W. Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1015 mb surface low is analyzed near 27N28W. A surface trough runs through the low from 31N27W to the low to 24N29W to 23N38W. A stationary front extends from 32N22W to 25N22W to 19N29W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 27N-32N between 21W-28W. The surface low is part of a deep-layered low that is no longer perfectly vertically stacked. The upper- level low is near 31N28W. A cold front will move offshore of NE Florida Sun night, reaching from 31N68W to the central Bahamas Mon night, from 28N65W to the Turks and Caicos Tue night, from 23N65W to the N coast of the Dominican Republic Wed night, then from 22N63W to near the Mona Passage Thu night while weakening. Overall, marine conditions over the Atlantic will remain fairly tranquil through the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen