000 AXNT20 KNHC 130000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Sat Jan 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 02N10W. ITCZ continues from that point to 00N30W and into the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 07N-00N between 10W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 04N-00N between 23W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 29N92W to S Texas near 24N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms extending 90 to 180 nm east ahead of the front. This convection extends S to SW over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 30N88W to 25N94W. A surface trough is ahead of the front from 24N96W to 22N97W. Water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air behind the front filtering into the NW Gulf of Mexico and limiting any additional shower activity. A cold front from SW Louisiana to NE Mexico will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico Mexico Sun, pushing SE of the basin Mon. A surface trough will develop offshore of Veracruz Mexico in the SW Gulf Mon, lingering over the western Gulf through Wed before pushing W and inland as ridging builds from the E. The ridging will then dominate through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak mid-upper level ridging covers the western Caribbean while weak mid-upper level troughing covers the eastern Caribbean. The weather is fairly quiet across the Caribbean Basin as dry mid- level air covers the region. There are two areas where there is enough low-level moisture to support scattered showers. One of these areas is over the Leeward Islands and the other includes eastern Cuba, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, E Honduras, and E Nicaragua. Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean the next several days, with winds pulsing to near gale at night NW of the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N52W to 22N62W. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-25N between 48W-53W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 100 nm of the front. A shearline extends from 22N62W to the northeast Bahamas near 20N72W. Over the eastern Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 32N22W to 24N22W to 19N29W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the of the front. A 1015 mb low is near 26N29W with surface trough extending SW from the low to 24N35W. No significant convection is observed with the trough. A shearline N of Hispaniola will dissipate tonight. A cold front will move offshore of NE Florida Sun night, reaching from 31N68W to the central Bahamas Mon night, from 28N65W to the Turks and Caicos Tue night, from 23N65W to the N coast of the Dominican Republic Wed night, then from 22N63W to near the Mona Passage Thu night while weakening. Overall, marine conditions will remain fairly tranquil through the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres