000 AXNT20 KNHC 120538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1238 AM EST Sat Jan 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 01N28W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is seen within 150 nm of the monsoon trough between 21W-26W. Elsewhere within 300 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted. GULF OF MEXICO... A line of showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms is moving from the Texas coast into the western Gulf of Mexico. This line is likely to persist through the overnight hours and affect waters west of 95W and north of 25N. The line is not particularly strong, but scattered thunderstorms and brief gusty winds are possible in the area until sunrise. The instability in the area is being enhanced by a low pressure system in SW Oklahoma and an associated cold front over west Texas. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure extends from the mid-Atlantic U.S. East Coast to the NE Gulf of Mexico, leading to relatively quiet weather over the eastern and central Gulf. The cold front that is currently over west Texas will move into the NW Gulf this afternoon. The front will reach from the Big Bend of Florida to Tampico Mexico on Sunday, and from the Straits of Florida to NW Cuba on Monday morning. A surface trough will develop from the southern Yucatan Peninsula, to the northern Isthmus of Tehuantepec to Tampico Mexico on Sunday morning, and from the southern Yucatan Peninsula to the offshore waters of SE Texas on Monday morning. This trough will linger over the western Gulf through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a dissipating stationary front extends from the Windward Passage northeastward into the Atlantic. East of the front, a surface trough is over the Atlantic with its SW end near the N coast of Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over Hispaniola as well as the waters just north of the Dominican Republic and western Puerto Rico. Isolated showers are also near portions of the Leeward Islands. The remainder of the Caribbean is relatively quiet at this time. NE flow across the approach to the Windward Passage may pulse to fresh tonight into early Saturday. Winds in the S central Caribbean Sea will strengthen tonight through Saturday, and then expand in coverage from Saturday night through Wednesday. Long period N swell will propagate into the Atlantic Ocean waters and Caribbean Sea passages through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the W Atlantic from 32N53W to 27N60W to 23N66W, and it continues as a dissipating stationary front from 23N66W to the Windward Passage. A surface trough is located just east of the front from 28N56.5W to 24N62.5W to just N of San Juan Puerto Rico. Another surface trough is analyzed west of the front from 30N61W to 25N68W to the NW Bahamas. From 22N-27N, scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the front, mainly near the trough that is to the east of the front. North of 27N, scattered moderate convection is seen between 50W-60W. Farther east, a 1017 mb surface low is near 31N24W. This low is a deep-layered occluded low. An occluded front extends north, then east, from the low and out of the forecast area, but then turns south and enters the area as a cold front, which extends from 31N19W to 26N21W to 21N30W to 21N39W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 27N between 18W- 26W. Scattered showers are elsewhere along the front NE of 23N25W. A dissipating stationary front extending from 23N65W to the Windward Passage will wash out completely by early this morning. A new cold front, moving off NE Florida on Sunday, will extend from 30N65W to southern Florida Monday night, and from 27N66W across the Bahamas to central Cuba on Tuesday night. This front will dissipate N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen