000 AXNT20 KNHC 111113 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 613 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed mainly 80 to 100 nm on either side of both boundaries between 10W- 25W and west of 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across eastern Mexico. Surface ridge prevails across the gulf waters in the wake of a cold front that currently extends across the west Caribbean and west Atlantic. Very dry air prevails across the basin hindering the development of convection. Surface and scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate northerly winds prevailing across the gulf. The next cold front will move across the northwest gulf this weekend. This front will reach from near central Florida to 22N96W to 19N86W on Sunday night, then move southeast of the area on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from east Cuba near 20N75W to 16N88W. An upper-level trough extends across the central Caribbean. Diffluent flow aloft is enhancing convection across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, as well as their adjacent waters. GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show a dry air mass over the western Caribbean behind the front. The scatterometer data indicates light to gentle winds over central and eastern portion of the basin. The cold front will weaken as it continues to push east over the west Caribbean today. Fresh winds over the far south central Caribbean will begin to strengthen Saturday. Long period north swell, with seas peaking to around 7 ft, will propagate through the Atlantic waters through Saturday night, then subside through Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N58W to 20N74W, then continues into the eastern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly north of 24N between 57W-63W. To the east, another cold front is in the central Atlantic extending from 31N20W to 26N27W, then becomes stationary from that point to 23N45W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the area. The cold front in the west Atlantic will reach from 24N65W to northern Haiti today, where it will become stationary and diffuse by late Saturday. The next cold front will move across the western waters Sunday night then reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba Monday night. Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede this front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA