000
AXNT20 KNHC 110540
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1240 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of 
Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 00N27W. The ITCZ continues 
from 00N27W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
mainly 80 to 100 nm on either side of both boundaries between
10W-25W and west of 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across eastern Mexico. Surface ridge
prevails across the gulf waters in the wake of a cold front that
currently extends across the west Caribbean and west Atlantic. 
Very dry air prevails across the basin hindering the development 
of convection. Surface and scatterometer data indicate gentle to 
moderate northerly winds prevailing across the gulf.

The next cold front will move across the northwest gulf this
weekend. This front will reach from near central Florida to 
22N96W to 19N86W on Sunday night, then move southeast of the area
on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from east Cuba near 21N78W to 17N88W. An 
upper-level trough extends across the central Caribbean. Diffluent
flow aloft is enhancing convection across Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico, as well as the adjacent waters. GOES-16 water vapor imagery
shows dry air mass entering the western Caribbean behind the 
front. The scatterometer data indicates light to gentle winds over
Central and eastern portion of the basin. 

The cold front will weaken as it continues to push east over the
west Caribbean through Friday morning. Fresh winds over the far 
south central Caribbean will begin to strengthen Saturday. Long 
period north swell, with seas peaking to around 7 ft, will 
propagate through the Atlantic waters through Saturday night, 
then subside through Monday night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to 21N77W, then continues into 
east Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N60W to 23N67W.  
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and near the surface
trough mainly north of 23N between 56W-65W. To the east, another 
cold front is in the central Atlantic extending from 31N22W to 
23N38W, then becomes stationary from that point to 23N45W. High 
pressure dominates the remainder of the area. 

The cold front in the west Atlantic will reach from 24N65W to 
northern Haiti Friday, where it will become stationary and become 
diffuse by late Saturday. The next cold front will move across 
the western waters Sunday night then reach from near 31N70W to 
the central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba Monday night. Fresh 
to strong southwest winds will precede this front.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA