000 AXNT20 KNHC 101711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1211 PM EST Thu Jan 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 02N20W, to 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from 01N26W to 01N31W, 02N35W, and 03N43W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from the line 06N10W to 04N30W to 06N52W southward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 23N80W, across NW Cuba, across parts of the coastal waters of the northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 23N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front continues from 23N96W to 22N98W. The stationary front continues northwestward, into interior Mexico. Broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the south of the line that runs from 24N80W to 23N90W to 26N97W. A cold front extends from western Cuba to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula and to near 23N96W, where it becomes stationary, to inland Mexico just north of Tampico. The stationary front will dissipate by this evening, as the cold front continues to pull away from the area by late tonight. High pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the front on Friday. The next cold front will move across the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This front will reach from near central Florida to 22N96W to 19N86W on Sunday night, and then move southeast of the area on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough cuts across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, toward the NE part of Colombia and NW Venezuela. A trough/cyclonic wind flow is in the same areas at 500 mb and at 700 mb, according to the GFS model. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea to the west of the line that runs from SW Haiti to the coast of Panama along 78W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are also to the east of 74W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10 January/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.40 in Guadeloupe, 0.03 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.01 in Curacao. Fresh winds in the far south central Caribbean Sea will begin to strengthen on Saturday. Long period N swell, with seas peaking to around 7 feet, will propagate through the Atlantic Ocean waters through Saturday night, and then subside through Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N64W, just to the east of Bermuda, beyond 23N80W and beyond NW Cuba. A surface trough is to the east of the cold front, along 29N65W 24N70W, across Great Inagua Island in the SE Bahamas, to the coastal waters of NW Jamaica near 18N79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 45 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N60W to 28N64W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from the coastal waters of SE Cuba to 23N70W 27N64W beyond 32N60W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10 January/1200 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 1.09 in Bermuda. An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N26W to 28N38W and 25N36W. The front becomes dissipating stationary from 25N36W to 23N51W. A surface trough continues from 23N51W to 22N60W. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N24W 28N29W 26N35W 24N43W to 25N48W. A cold front, extending from just east of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to along the northern coast of Cuba, will reach from near 24N65W to northern Haiti on Friday, where it will become stationary and become diffuse by late Saturday. The next cold front will move across the northwest waters on Sunday night, and reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to west central Cuba on Monday night. Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede this front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT