000
AXNT20 KNHC 101114
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EST Thu Jan 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of 
Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues 
from 02N23W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
along both boundaries mainly south of 03N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 24N80W to 23N88W to 25N96W, then 
becomes stationary from that point to 22N98W to northeast Mexico.  
Dry low-to-mid level air prevails across the basin hindering the 
development of convection. Latest surface and scatterometer data 
indicate moderate to fresh northerly winds are prevailing across 
the gulf north of the front.

The stationary front over the western Gulf will dissipate
today as the cold front continues moving southeast away from the
basin. High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the 
front on Friday. The next cold front will enter the northwest 
Gulf early this weekend. This front will reach from near central 
Florida to 22N96W to 19N86W Sunday night then will shift southeast 
of the area on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is centered over the central Caribbean.
Diffluent mid-to-upper level flow to the east of the trough is 
supporting cloudiness across the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico and
the central Caribbean towards Colombia. Lower and middle level 
GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows dry air to the west and east of 
this swath of clouds previously described, which is supporting 
fair weather in these other portions of the basin. Fresh to strong
winds over the far south central Caribbean will begin to expand 
in coverage this weekend. The highest wind speeds are expected 
near the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will enter the 
northwest waters this afternoon, reach eastern Cuba to the Gulf 
of Honduras Friday afternoon, and then stall before dissipating on
Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N66W to south Florida near 24N80W 
then continues across the Gulf of Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is 
analyzed from 30N65W to the central Bahamas to northern Cuba near
20N75W. Scattered showers are noted along and near the surface 
trough mainly north of 24N. To the east, another cold front is in
the central Atlantic extending from 32N28W to 25N36W, then 
becomes stationary from that point to 22N60W. High pressure 
dominates the remainder of the area.

The westernmost cold front will reach from 24N65W to northern
Haiti Friday, where it will stall and become diffuse by late
Saturday. The next cold front will enter the northwest waters on
Sunday night, extending from near 31N68W to the Straits of 
Florida by Monday night. The frontal system currently in the 
central Atlantic will weaken through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA