000 AXNT20 KNHC 091116 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 616 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the SW coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed south of 07N between 20W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is entering the northwest gulf extending from 29N91W to 27N97W. To the southeast, a surface trough extends from 26N85W to 23N84W producing shower activity in its vicinity. A 1022 mb surface high is centered near 27N89W and extends elsewhere. The high is causing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and low seas to prevail across the area. The high pressure will shift east over the forecast waters during the next couple of days. Fresh northerly winds will follow the cold front across the northern gulf today, then the front will continue moving southward over the basin through Thursday night. High pressure will then prevail over the forecast waters through Friday night. The next cold front is expected to move into the northwest gulf on Saturday followed by fresh northeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Typical patches of low clouds and scattered showers exist area- wide. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin with strongest winds, ranging in the fresh to strong categories, in the typical spot near the coast of Colombia due to the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over South America. These conditions will prevail during the overnight hours. Little change is expected through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the western Atlantic, with a 1024 mb high centered near 33N57W. A surface trough near the northwest Bahamas from 26N78W to 23N78W is producing scattered showers in this area. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N34W to 23N48W, then becomes stationary and weak from that point to 21N59W. Scattered showers are present near the boundary, mainly north of 27N. Weather conditions are fairly quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic where weak high pressure dominates. A cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida today. The front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba late tonight, and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late Thursday before stalling and becoming diffuse from near 24N65W to northern Haiti Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA