000 AXNT20 KNHC 090519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1219 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the SW coast of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N between 18W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico extending from 26N87W to 24N85W is producing some shower activity in its vicinity. Otherwise, a 1021 mb surface high is centered near 28N89W and extending across the basin. The surface high is causing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and low seas across the majority of the area. The high pressure will shift east over the forecast waters during the next couple of days. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering the northern Gulf tonight, then moving southward over the Gulf through Thursday night. High pressure will then prevail over the forecast waters through Friday night. The next cold front is expected to move into the northwest gulf on Saturday followed by fresh northeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery shows a small area of showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean from 14N to 18N between 80W and 83W. This activity is primarily associated with an upper-level trough that extends across this area. Elsewhere, typical patches of low clouds and scattered showers exist area-wide. The trade winds are strongest, ranging in the fresh to strong categories, in the typical spot near the coast of Colombia due to the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over South America. These conditions will prevail during the overnight hours. Little change is expected through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the western Atlantic, with a 1025 mb high centered near 34N62W. A surface trough near the northwest Bahamas from 27N78W to 24N77W producing scattered showers in this area. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N37W to 21N59W, then becomes weak from that point to 23N70W. Scattered showers are present near the boundary, mainly north of 27N. Weather conditions are fairly quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic where weak high pressure dominates. The only exception is an area of showers north of 27N between 28W-31W, which is associated with an upper- level low and a surface trough. Another cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida tonight and Wednesday. The front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba late Wednesday, and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late Thursday before stalling and becoming diffuse from near 24N65W to northern Haiti Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA