000 AXNT20 KNHC 082354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 654 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the SW coast of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 04N10W. The ITCZ continues from 04N10W to 00N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection currently exists 340 nm of the ITCZ axis and between 20W and 35W. Scattered showers also exists near the west coast of Africa from 02N to 10N between 10W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico extending from 26N85W southward to 22N85W is producing some shower activity in its vicinity. Otherwise, a 1024 mb high pressure and fair weather prevail across the remainder of the region. The surface high is also causing gentle to moderate winds and low seas across the majority of the Gulf. High pressure will shift east over the forecast waters during the next couple of days. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering the northern Gulf tonight, and this front will move slowly southward over the Gulf through Thu night. High pressure will then prevail over the forecast waters through Fri night. The next cold front is expected to move into the NW gulf on Sat followed by fresh northeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite images show a small area of showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea from 15N to 21N between 81W and 83W. This activity is primarily associated with an upper-level trough that extends across the area. Elsewhere, typical patches of low clouds and isolated showers exist area-wide. The trade winds are strongest, around 20-25 kt, in the typical spot near the coast of Colombia due to the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over South America. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean Sea through mid week, with the strongest winds remaining near the coast of Colombia. The winds will likely diminish some by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the western Atlantic. A surface trough near the northwest Bahamas from 27N77W to 23N77W is likely producing scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough. No other significant showers or thunderstorm activity exist over that area. Even though the weather is fair, seas are elevated due to northwesterly swell. The seas are highest behind a strong cold front over the central Atlantic that currently extends from 31N40W to 25N50W to 22N58W. Dissipating cold front continues from that point to 22N66W. A shear line exists from 22N66W to northwest Bahamas near 25N76W. Scattered showers are present near the boundary, and elsewhere north of 25N between 37W and 48W. Weather conditions are fairly quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic where weak high pressure dominates. The only exception is an area of showers and thunderstorms from 27N to 31N between 30W and 37W, which is associated with an upper- level low and associated surface trough. A cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida tonight and Wed. The front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba late Wed, and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late Thu before stalling and becoming diffuse from near 24N65W to northern Haiti Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres