000 AXNT20 KNHC 081715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the SW coast of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W to 01N24W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection currently exists within 240 n mi of the ITCZ axis between 20W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico extending from 27N85W southward to 23N84W is producing some shower activity in its vicinity. Otherwise, high pressure and fair weather prevail across the remainder of the region. The surface high is also causing light winds and low seas across the majority of the Gulf. High pressure will shift east over the forecast waters during the next couple of more days. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering the northern Gulf tonight, and this front will move slowly southward over the Gulf through late this week. Another cold front is expected to move over the northwestern waters on Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite images show a small area of showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea from 15N to 19N between 81W and 83W. This activity is primarily associated with an upper-level trough that extends across the area. Elsewhere, typical patches of low clouds and isolated showers exist area-wide. The trade winds are strongest, around 20-25 kt, in the typical spot near the coast of Colombia due to the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over South America. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean Sea for another day or two, with the strongest winds remaining near the coast of Colombia. The winds will likely diminish some after that time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the western Atlantic and no significant showers or thunderstorms exist over that area. Even though the weather is fair, seas are elevated due to northwesterly swell. The seas are highest, up to 18 ft., behind a strong cold front over the central Atlantic that currently extends from 31N44W to 27N49W to 24N58W. Scattered showers are likley near the boundary, and elswhere north of 28N between 43W and 52W. Scatterometer data indicate that winds near the boundary have dropped below gale force, but there is still a lagre area of 20-30 kt near that feature. Weather conditions are fairly quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic where weak high pressure domintaes. The only exception is an area of showers and thunderstorms from 27N to 31N between 25W and 29W, which is associated with an upper-level low and associated surface trough. A cold front is expected to move over the waters off northeastern Florida tonight and Wednesday. This front is expected to move slowly southeastward before stalling late this week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cangialosi