000 AXNT20 KNHC 081053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 553 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning continues in effect for the Atlantic waters north of 28N and behind a cold front to 58W. The front extends from 31N51W to 28N60W. These winds will diminish within the next 6 hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic from the SW coast of Liberia near 05N08W and extends to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted between the west coast of Africa and 36W, mainly south of 08N. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails over the basin, with a 1023 mb high centered over northern Florida. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. No significant precipitation is observed over the Gulf at this time. High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through mid-week. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering the northern Gulf by Wednesday morning. The front will sink slowly southward over the Gulf through Thursday night. Low pressure may develop over the northwest Gulf along the next cold front expected to arrive by the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp upper-level trough is over the northwest Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan Penninsula and north of Honduras. A surface trough is analyzed in this area, extending along 84W from 15N-22N. Scattered showers are noted from 16N-19N between 80W-86W. Isolated showers are noted across the remainder of the basin, moving quickly with the trades. Fresh trades continue across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong trades near the coast of Colombia. High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean through mid week, diminishing slightly by the end of the week as the high weakens. The highest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N51W to 28N60W. A surface trough extends from 31N47W to 24N67W with scattered showers. Gale-force winds are associated to the cold front. Refer to the section above for details. In the northeast Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 30N28W to 23N32W. A 1018 mb high is centered near 25N39W. High pressure is maintaining gentle to moderate winds across the region east of Florida and from the Bahamas northward. A cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by tomorrow night, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wednesday, and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late Thursday. The front will stall and become diffuse from 24N65W to northern Haiti by the end of the work-week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA