000 AXNT20 KNHC 080521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1221 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning is now in effect for the Atlantic waters north of 30N and behind a cold front that extends from 32N55W to 29N61W. These winds will progress eastward between 60W-45W overnight, remaining north of 30N. The gale is expected to move out of the area before 08/1200 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic from the SW coast of Liberia near 05N08W and extends to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from 03N10W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted between the west coast of Africa and 38W, mainly south of 05N. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails over the basin, with a 1023 mb high centered near 23N84W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin, with higher speeds prevailing mainly west of 93W. No significant precipitation is observed over the Gulf at this time. An upper level ridge axis extends from SE Louisiana to the west-central Gulf near 24N95W to southern Mexico near 18N98W and into the East Pacific. High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through mid-week. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering the northern Gulf by Wednesday morning. The front will sink slowly southward over the Gulf through Thursday night. Low pressure may develop over the northwest Gulf along the next cold front expected to arrive by the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean, just E of the Yucatan Penninsula and north of Honduras. Scattered showers are noted over the west Caribbean south of 20N between from 16N- 20N between 81W-89W. Isolated showers are noted across the basin, moving quickly with the trades. Fresh trades continue across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong trades near the coast of Colombia. High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean through mid week, diminishing slightly by the end of the week as the high weakens. The highest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a cold front extends into the area from 32N55W to 29N61W. A surface trough extends from 31N49W to 25N69W with scattered showers. Gale winds are associated to the cold front. Refer to the section above for details. In the northeast Atlantic, a weakening stationary front extends into the area from 31N28W to 27N29W. A 1020 mb high is centered near 27N42W. Weak high pressure is maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the region east of Florida and from the Bahamas northward. A cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by tomorrow night, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wednesday, and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late Thursday. The front will stall and become diffuse from 24N65W to northern Haiti by the end of the work-week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA