000 AXNT20 KNHC 071112 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 612 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 05N00W to Liberia near 05N09W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01N30W to 00N40W to Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 00W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 05S-05N between 16W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with 10-15 kt E to SE flow. Clear skies cover the E Gulf and Florida, with partly cloudy conditions over the W Gulf and Texas. In the upper levels,an upper level high is centered over Mexico near 21N100W. An upper level ridge axis extends from the high center to the Florida Panhandle. Surface high pressure will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico forecast waters through midweek. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering the northern Gulf Wed and moving across the eastern Gulf through Thu. Low pres may develop in the NW Gulf along a developing cold front by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp upper-level trough is also over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate showers with isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Caribbean and Honduras N of 15N and W of 80W. The surface pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure north of the Caribbean and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Scatterometer data shows an area of 20 to 25 kt north of Colombia from 11-12.5N between 74W-77W. Broad high pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through mid week, diminishing some by the end of the week as the high weakens. The highest winds are expected near coast of Colombia at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N57W to 27N65W. A stationary front continues to the N Bahamas near 24N75W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the cold front. A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N47W. A dissipating cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N27W to 26N30W to 23N40W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front N of 27N. The cold front over the W Atlantic will become diffuse Wed. Another cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida Tue night and Wed, and reach a position from Bermuda to central Cuba late Wed, and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late Thu. The front will stall and become diffuse from 24N65W to northern Haiti Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa