000 AXNT20 KNHC 070526 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1226 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 06N11W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 01N25W to 01N40W to Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N-11N between 07W-19W. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 04S-04N between 19W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 30N86W. Clear skies cover the NE Gulf and Florida, with partly cloudy conditions over the western and southern Gulf. 10-15 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf. High pres will prevail over the forecast waters through midweek. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering the northern Gulf Wed and moving across the eastern Gulf through Thu. Low pres may develop in the NW Gulf along a developing cold front by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N78W to the NW Caribbean near 20N81W, and a dissipating stationary front continues to 19N84W. A sharp upper-level trough is also over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate showers with isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Caribbean and Honduras N of 15N and W of 80W. The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure north of the Caribbean and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data shows an area of 20 to 25 kt north of Colombia from 11-12.5N between 74W-77W. The dissipating stationary front over the far NW Caribbean will wash out tonight. Broad high pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through mid week, diminishing some by the end of the week as the high weakens. The highest winds are expected near coast of Colombia at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to the central Bahamas near 23N75W to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm NW of the front and within 60 nm SE of the front. A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N48W. Another cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N27W to 24N36W and transitions to a dissipating cold front from that point to 22N44W. Scattered showers are present along and within 90 nm east of the front north of 25N and east of 31W. The cold front over the W Atlantic will move eastward, gradually becoming stationary along roughly 24N east of the Bahamas Tue, then becoming diffuse Wed. Another cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida Tue night and Wed, and reach a position from Bermuda to central Cuba late Wed, and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late Thu. The front will stall and become diffuse from 24N65W to northern Haiti Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa