000
AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EST Sun Jan 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 06N11W to 03N19W. 
The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 01N30W to 00N50W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 10N between the
coast of Africa and 25W, and south of 05N between 25W and the
coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered over southern Alabama and
southern Mississippi near 31N88W with a surface ridge extending
across most of the Gulf. Clear skies cover the northeastern Gulf,
with partly cloudy conditions over the western and southern Gulf.
With high pressure prevailing, winds are generally gentle. High
pres will prevail over the forecast waters through midweek. Fresh
northerly winds will follow a cold front entering the northern 
Gulf Wed and moving across the eastern Gulf through Thu. Low pres 
may develop in the NW Gulf along a developing cold front by the 
end of the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the central Bahamas near 23N75W to
central Cuba near 21N78W to 20.5N80W, and as a dissipating cold
front from that point to the coast of Belize near 17N88W. An
upper-level trough extends over the western Atlantic through the
NW Bahamas to western Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered 
moderate convection covers the NW Caribbean within 120 nm on 
either side of the front. A 06/1450 UTC ASCAT pass shows some 
locally strong N winds on the north side of this boundary west of 
84W. The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure north 
of the Caribbean and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to 
strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Latest 
scatterometer data shows an area of 20 to 25 kt north of Colombia 
from 11-12.5N between 74W-77W. 

A cold front over the far NW Caribbean will stall and become 
diffuse through tonight. Broad high pressure NE of the area will 
maintain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean 
through mid week, diminishing some by the end of the week as the 
high weakens. The highest winds are expected near the coast of 
Colombia at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N60W to the central
Bahamas near 23N75W to central Cuba near 21N78W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm NW of the
front and within 60 nm SE of the front, including over the central
Bahamas. Farther east, another cold front extends from 32N27W to
26N31.5W to 24N37W and transitions into a dissipating cold front
from that point to 23N40W. Scattered showers are present along and
within 90 nm east of the front north of 25N and east of 31W. A
1022 mb high is centered near 26N52W.

The cold front over the W Atlantic will move eastward, gradually 
becoming stationary along roughly 24N east of the Bahamas Tue, 
then becoming diffuse through Wed. Another cold front will move 
into the waters off NE Florida Tue night and Wed, and reach a 
position from Bermuda to central Cuba late Wed, and from 26N65W to
the Windward Passage by late Thu. The front will stall and become
diffuse from 24N65W to northern Haiti Fri.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen