000 AXNT20 KNHC 061156 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 656 AM EST Sun Jan 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 20W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1023 mb is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N91W. Overcast low clouds are over the western Bay of Campeche and S Mexico banking up along the E slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the southern Gulf of Mexico, while light to gentle winds prevail over the northern gulf. High pressure will prevail through midweek before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move into the NW gulf Wed, and into the central Gulf through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from W Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure north of the Caribbean and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. The cold front over the far NW Caribbean will stall and become diffuse today. The fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south central Caribbean through mid week before diminishing Thu. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W to W Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the front to include over the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of 28N within 300 nm east of the front. This cold front will continue moving eastward, with winds increasing to near gale force N of 28N between 46W and 53W on Mon night before diminishing through the day on Tue. A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N50W and extends a ridge to near the central Bahamas. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N29W to 26N35W to 24N45W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 24N between 21W-29W. This cold front will stall and dissipate early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AL/Formosa