000
AXNT20 KNHC 060006
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of southern 
Liberia near 06N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 
02N30W to the Mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 20W-36W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 05/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Straits of 
Florida near 24N80W to W Cuba near 22N84W to the Yucatan Peninsula
near 21N87W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 
post frontal trough extends from central Florida near 27N80W to SE
Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W. A 1022 mb high is over the NW Gulf 
near 29N93W. Elsewhere, overcast low clouds are over the western
Bay of Campeche and S Mexico banking up along the E slopes of the
Sierra Madre Mountains. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are 
behind the front over the eastern Gulf while gentle to moderate 
N-NE winds are over the western Gulf. The next cold front will 
reach the northern Gulf Wed, and move into the central Gulf 
through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure of 1024 mb located NE of the area near 26N58W
will maintain fresh to strong winds across much of the central 
Caribbean through Tue, with highest winds expected near coast of 
Colombia at night. Latest altimeter data indicate seas of 9-11 ft 
near the coast of Colombia. 

The cold front currently moving across the NW Caribbean will  
stall tonight becoming diffuse through Sun. Expect fresh to 
strong winds across the central Caribbean through mid week, with 
highest winds expected near coast of Colombia at night. Shallow 
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the 
region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N71W to the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
within 90 nm of the front. 20-25 kt winds are on both sides of the
front. A 1024 mb high is centered over the W-central Atlantic 
near 26N58W and extends a ridge to near the central Bahamas. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N35W to 28N40W to 
26N50W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 27N between 26W-36W.


Over the W Atlantic expect the cold front to move to a position 
from 31N65W to Central Cuba by early Sun. The front will gradually
become stationary along roughly 24N east of the Bahamas by Tue, 
then become diffuse through Wed. Another cold front will move into
the waters off NE Florida Wed, and reach a position from Bermuda 
to eastern Cuba by Wed night.
 
For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa