000 AXNT20 KNHC 051744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1244 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of southern Liberia near 05N08W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01N30W to the Mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-04N between 20W-25W. Similar convection is also noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 30W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 05/1500 UTC, a cold front extends across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf into the Yucatan Peninsula. A secondary front is noted across central Florida and the eastern Gulf to near 26N85W. These fronts are forecast to merge today, and move SE of the area by early this evening. A 1024 mb high pressure centered over SW Louisiana follows the front, and it will move toward the Carolinas by early Mon morning. Mainly low level clouds with embedded showers are associated with the frontal boundary over the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Satellite imagery also indicates cold air stratocumulus clouds in the wake of the front, particularly across the eastern half of the Gulf, as well as persistent low level cloudiness banking up along the E slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains, and over the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are behind the front over the eastern Gulf while gentle to moderate N-NE winds are over the western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the northern Gulf Wed, and move into the central Gulf through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad high pressure of 1024 mb located NE of the area near 27N58W will maintain fresh to strong winds across much of the central Caribbean through Tue, with highest winds expected near coast of Colombia at night. Latest altimeter data indicate seas of 9-11 ft near the coast of Colombia. The cold front currently moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico will drift through the Yucatan Channel today and stall across the far NW Caribbean by early this evening, before becoming diffuse through Sun. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N74W and extends SW to the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front, but mainly N of 26N. A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of strong to near gale force W-NW winds behind the front and N of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are also seen ahead of the front. A secondary front extends from 31N78W to central Florida. The fronts will merge tonight and reach a position form 31N65W to Central Cuba by early Sun. The merged front will gradually become stationary along roughly 24N east of the Bahamas by Tue, then become diffuse through Wed. Another cold front enters the forecast area near 31N38W and continues SW to 26N45W to 27N53W where it becomes stationary to to near 31N58W. will move into the waters off NE Florida Wed. Based on scatterometer data, fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front N of 28N between 35W-42W. Long period NW swell follows the front. The next cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida on Wed. A 1024 mb high is centered over the W-central Atlantic near 27N58W and extends a ridge to near the central Bahamas. Another ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic. In between, there is a surface trough that extends along 30W N of 25W. This trough is a reflexion of an upper-level trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR