000
AXNT20 KNHC 051202
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02N30W 
to the Mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 75 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 16W-18W.
Similar convection is noted within 60 nm S of the axis between 30W
and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 05/0900 UTC, a cold front extends across SE Florida and the
Florida Keys to near 23N84W where it becomes stationary to the 
Yucatan Peninsula. Some shower activity is along the frontal 
boundary forecast to exit the Gulf waters by this evening. Fresh
to locally strong NW surface winds are in the wake of the front.
Gentle to moderate SW winds are noted ahead of the front. A couple 
of showers could linger over south Florida this morning due to 
low level moisture remaining in place before a much drier and 
slightly cooler air mass begins to filter in this afternoon. A
secondary front extends from the Carolinas to northern Florida.
Another cold front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure of 1024 mb located NE of the area near 26N60W 
will maintain fresh to strong winds across much of the central 
Caribbean through Tue, with highest winds expected near coast of 
Colombia at night. The cold front currently moving across the Gulf
of Mexico will stall and weaken in the NW Caribbean tonight.
Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
noted across the basin. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N78W and extends SW
to South Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Some shower activity is 
along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds are on either
side of the front but mainly N of 27N W of 65W. Winds behind the
front are expected to diminish to a moderate breeze tonight. The
front will reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and
central Cuba tonight, then the northern portion of the front will
continue to move SE while the southern parts stall and weaken 
over the SE Bahamas Sun and Mon. Another cold front enters the
region near 31N40W and extends mainly westward to near 28N45W to
30N55W. Some shower activity is ahead of the front N of 28N. the
next cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida on Wed.

A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N60W and
extends a ridge across much of the central and western Atlantic.
Another ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic. In between, a 
surface trough that extends 30W N of 25W. This trough is a 
reflexion of an upper-level trough. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR