000 AXNT20 KNHC 050546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1246 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 04N08W to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W to 02N30W to 01N40W to the Mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. An elongated upper-level trough extends WSW from 21N29W to 21N36W to 13N54W. Upper-level SW wind flow ahead of the trough cuts across the ITCZ and is providing upper-level divergence over this region at the same time it is shearing the convection. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-03N between 03W- 14W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01N- 06N between 15W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 05/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from E of Jacksonville Florida near 30N81W to the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N82W to the N Yucatan Peninsula near 21N90W to S Mexico near 18N92W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the front N of 26N. 20-25 kt W to NW surface winds are over the NE Gulf W of front. 10-20 kt SW surface winds are over the SE Gulf E of front. The current cold front will move SE of the basin by Sat night. Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft W of the front overnight will diminish on Sat. Another cold front will reach the northern Gulf on Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tradewinds are noted throughout the Caribbean sea with scattered showers over the Leeward islands and over W Cuba. Broad high pressure across the west-central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong winds across much of the central Caribbean through Tue, with highest winds near coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will stall and weaken in the NW Caribbean on Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N61W. Two cold fronts are N of 30N over the central Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is N of 30N between 35W-41W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 32N29W to 25N30W. This trough also has an upper level trough above it. Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will reach from 31N72W to Miami FL on Sat, from near Bermuda to Cuba Sat night, then stall and weaken from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas Sun and Mon. Another cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida on Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa