000 AXNT20 KNHC 050006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 706 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N30W to 01N40W to the Mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. An elongated upper-level trough extends WSW from 21N29W to 21N36W to 13N54W. Upper-level SW wind flow ahead of the trough cuts across the ITCZ and is providing upper-level divergence over this region at the same time it is shearing the convection. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01N-06N between 20W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 04/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near 30N83W to the E Gulf of Mexico near 28N84W to the south central Gulf near 22N90W to S Mexico near 18N83W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the front N of 24N. 20-25 kt W to NW surface winds are over the NE Gulf W of front. 10-20 kt SW surface winds are over the SE GulF E of front. The current cold front will continue pushing slowly eastward tonight, reaching from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula early Sat, then move SE of the basin on Sat night. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft will follow the front through this evening, then diminish late tonight and Sat. Another cold front will reach the northern Gulf Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tradewinds are noted throughout the Caribbean sea with scattered showers over the Leeward islands. Broad high pressure across the west- central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong winds across much of the the central Caribbean through Wed night, with near gale- force winds near coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will stall and weaken in the NW Caribbean on Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N63W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N50W to 32N60W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 32N29W to 25N30W. This trough also has an upper level trough above it. Over the W Atlantic, the surface high will weaken and shift eastward through Sun. A cold front moving off the coast of NE Florida tonight will reach from Bermuda to Cuba Sat night, then stall and weaken from 25N65W to the SE Bahamas Sun and Mon. Another cold front will reach the waters off NE Florida by Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa