000 AXNT20 KNHC 041702 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1201 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 02N32W and 02N41W to the Mouth of the Amazon River near 00N40W. An elongated upper- level trough extends WSW from 21N29W to 21N36W to 13N54W. Upper- level SW wind flow ahead of the trough cuts across the ITCZ and is providing upper-level divergence over this region at the same time it is shearing the convection. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within within 60 nm either side of a line from 03N23W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07S to 03S between 25W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front curves SSW from near Pensacola Florida to the central Gulf waters near 24N89W to 22N92W, then continues as a stationary front to Coatzacoalcos Mexico near 18N94W. W of 90W cloudiness and patchy rain are found along and N of the front to 23N. E of 90W numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place along and up to 150 nm to the SE of the front. The current cold front will continue pushing slowly eastward during the next two days. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche this afternoon, then from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 feet, will follow in the wake of the front through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish to the west of the front tonight and Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad deep-layer high pressure ridging SW over the basin from the central Atlc will maintain fresh to strong winds and relatively dry weather over the basin through Sat night. The fastest wind speeds will be present during the nighttime hours near the coast of Colombia. A cold front will stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean Sea Sat night and Sun. Wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish through early next week as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends SW from 32N34W to 29N39W, then continues W as a weakening warm front to 28N49W to 30N53W. This boundary has no significant convection associated with it. A cold front passes through 32N29W to 24N31W, then continues as a dissipating cold front to 21N34W. Cloudiness and isolated rain showers are occurring along and up to 240 nm E of this front and N of 26N. Surface high pressure measuring 1024 mb is centered over the west central Atlantic Ocean near 24N57W. This high will shift slowly eastward through Monday. A cold front, moving off the coast of NE Florida tonight, will reach from Bermuda to Cuba on Saturday night, then stall from near 26N60W to western Cuba Sunday and Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy