000 AXNT20 KNHC 041203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 02N31W and 02N40W. An elongated upper-level trough extends WSW from 21N29W to 21N36W to 13N54W. Upper-level SW wind flow ahead of the trough cuts across the ITCZ and is providing upper-level divergence over this region at the same time it is shearing the convection. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 06S to 03S between 20W and 32W...from 03N to 06N between 09W and 12W and within within 60 nm either side of a line from 03N28W to 02N44W. GULF OF MEXICO... The latest cold front to enter the basin curves SSW from near the Mouth of the Mississippi over the central Gulf waters near 24N91W to just SE of Veracruz Mexico near 18.5N95.5W. Cloudiness and patchy rain are found along and up to 180 nm to the NW of this boundary. A line of showers and thunderstorms is present along and up to 45 nm ahead of the front to the N of 28N. The current cold front will push eastward during the next two days. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche this afternoon, then from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 feet, will follow in the wake of the front through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish to the west of the front tonight and Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad deep-layer high pressure over the basin will maintain fresh to strong winds and relatively dry weather over the basin through Sat. The fastest wind speeds will be present during the nighttime hours near the coast of Colombia. A cold front will stall and weaken in the NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish during the weekend as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N35W to 27N49W to 30N53W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated rainshowers are seen to the north of the front to beyond 32N. A stationary front passes through 32N30W to 25N32W to 19N39W, then continuing as a dissipating stationary front to 16N45W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 19N northward between 20W and 31W. Surface high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will weaken and shift eastward through Sunday. A cold front, moving off the coast of NE Florida tonight, will reach from Bermuda to Cuba on Saturday night, then stall along 23N on Sunday and Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy