000 AXNT20 KNHC 040004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N23W, to the Equator along 42W, and continuing along the Equator along 46W. Upper level SW wind flow cuts across the area of the ITCZ, along 05N52W beyond 10N39W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are to the east of the 10N39W-to-05N52W line. GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary frontal boundary weaves over the NW Gulf from just SE of Mobile Alabama to 28N91W to 1010 low pres centered E of Corpus Christi Texas near 27.5N95W to near Tampico Mexico. Patchy rain is occurring N of the front within 120 nm of the coasts of Texas and Louisiana between 90W and 95W. Ridging extending WSW from central Florida to near Veracruz Mexico is maintaining fair weather over the remainder of the Gulf to the SE of the front. Reinforcing cold air will force the current frontal boundary eastward, during the next few days, as a cold front. The cold front will extend from Mobile AL to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec tonight; from central Florida to Yucatan peninsula Fri night; then sweep SE of the Gulf on Sat. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the western Gulf tonight and Fri. Winds and seas will diminish Fri night and Sat west of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of an old stationary front passes from the Atlantic Ocean across Guadeloupe to S of Hispaniola near 17N71W. Shallow clouds and isolated showers are found along and up to 60 nm N of this boundary. Otherwise, deep-layer high pressure is restricting deep convection over the remainder of the basin. Broad high pressure across the west-central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong winds across much of the Caribbean through Fri, with near gale-force winds possible at night near the Colombia coast. A cold front will stall and weaken in the NW Caribbean this weekend. Winds and seas will diminish over the weekend as the high weakens and shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front heads SW from 32N30W through weak 1018 mb low pres centered near 27N34W to 19N39W, then continues as a weakening stationary front 15N54W to Guadalupe in the Leeward islands. Broad high pres ridging NE from Hispaniola to near 32N59W is inhibiting convection in the vicinity of this boundary. A cold front is sagging southward over the central Atlantic from 21N43W to 28N54W to 30N62W. This boundary continues as a warm front from 30N62W to beyond 32N65W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are evident within 60 nm of this boundary. Broad high pressure across the west-central Atlantic will weaken and shift eastward through Sun. A cold front moving off the coast of NE Florida Fri night will reach from Bermuda to Cuba Sat night, then flatten out to weaken along 23N Sun and Mon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ al/cm/mt