000 AXNT20 KNHC 031700 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1200 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes SW from Liberia on the African Coast near 06N10W to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 02N23W to 00N41W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within an are bounded by a line from 02N14W to 05S20W to 04S30W to 00N47W to 04N47W 05N30W to 02N14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary frontal boundary weaves over the NW Gulf from just SE of Mobile Alabama to 28N91W to 1010 low pres centered E of Corpus Christi Texas near 27.5N95W to near Tampico Mexico. Patchy rain is occurring N of the front within 120 nm of the coasts of Texas and Louisiana between 90W and 95W. Ridging extending WSW from central Florida to near Veracruz Mexico is maintaining fair weather over the remainder of the Gulf to the SE of the front. Low pres currently over the NW Gulf is beginning to pull out to the NE and will cross the SE United States during the next couple of days. The push of cold air behind the low will drive the front SE across the Gulf. The front will extend from Apalachicola Florida to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec Fri morning, from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula Friday night, then sweep to the SE of the Gulf of Mexico Sat. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the western Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday. Winds and seas will diminish Fri night and Sat as high pressure builds over the Gulf to the lee of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of an old stationary front passes from the Atlantic Ocean across Guadeloupe to S of Hispaniola near 17N71W. Shallow clouds and isolated showers are found along and up to 60 nm N of this boundary. Otherwise, deep-layer high pressure is restricting deep convection over the remainder of the basin. Surface high pressure to the north of the area is combining with low pressure over South America to generate strong to near gale force winds over the south central Caribbean Sea. Winds have been strongest at night. The wind speeds in this region will diminish during the next few days as the high pressure to the N is weakened by low pres moving E over the western Atlantic. Strong winds can become confined to along the coast of Colombia through the end of this week. A cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean Sat morning, but then stall and weaken Sun and Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front heads SW from 32N30W through weak 1018 mb low pres centered near 27N34W to 19N39W, then continues as a weakening stationary front 15N54W to Guadalupe in the Leeward islands. Broad high pres ridging NE from Hispaniola to near 32N59W is inhibiting convection in the vicinity of this boundary. A cold front is sagging southward over the central Atlantic from 21N43W to 28N54W to 30N62W. This boundary continues as a warm front from 30N62W to beyond 32N65W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are evident within 60 nm of this boundary. Broad surface high pressure over the west central Atlantic Ocean will weaken and shift eastward through Friday. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida Friday night. The front will reach from Bermuda to Cuba Saturday night, then stall and weaken from near 26N65W to eastern Cuba Sun and Mon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy